AUTOWAR25 Afternoon Edition
1. A U.S. armored brigade's own account: Ukrainian drone operators caused about 70% of its casualties in the first three days of an exercise in Germany
In Military Review's "Conducting the Offense Through Drone-Enabled Maneuver in Europe," Col. Michael Ziegelhofer, who commands the 1st Cavalry Division's 3rd Armored Brigade Combat Team ("Greywolf"), and six of his officers describe Combined Resolve 26-07 at Hohenfels. A detachment from Ukraine's 412th Unmanned Systems Regiment ("Nemesis") reinforced the opposing force.
- Drones caused about 70% of the brigade's casualties in the first three days. By the end of day three the share was below 30%. "The enemy did not reduce its effort over ten days; instead, Greywolf changed how it fought." The enemy opened contact with drones more than 750 times.
- On the offense, the brigade flew more than 700 drones from platoon to brigade level. Thanks to repeater drones, nearly all of the attached drone battalion's systems could reach at least 25–40 km. The authors write that the headquarters "never maintained a complete picture of how many unmanned systems were in flight."
- "Roughly 60 percent of the counter-UAS fight at the brigade level is fieldcraft and battle drills." Static jammers left moving units exposed and worked less well against fiber-optic drones. Crews shut off Blue Force Tracker and even Starshield to shrink their signature, and resupply took twice as long as planned.
- They recommend intent-based management of sensors, delegated strike authority, multifunctional strike troops with three drone platoons, a single shared drone picture modeled on Ukraine's Delta system, and counter-drone defense that works on the move. Defence Blog's post (8:21 AM ET) has ~181K views, and UNITED24 followed at 9:59 AM ET. Related: Oct. 19 AM #4 (the 1st Armored Division's drone strike platoons at Combined Resolve).
2. Abyei market drone strike toll rises to 153, and a Sudanese military source tells the BBC the army hit what it called an RSF fuel site
The BBC ("Sudan army drones hit mourners and fuel market killing more than 300 people, sources say") reports that Abyei's information minister, Yohana Akol Ngor, told AP and Reuters on Tuesday that the toll from Monday's drone strike on Amiet Market had risen from 73 to 153.
- A military source told the BBC the army carried out the Abyei attack, "saying the market was a fuel supply site for the RSF." The army hasn't formally responded, but it says it doesn't attack civilians.
- BBC Verify's satellite images show extensive burned buildings in the market's northeast corner. Verified video shows at least one petrol tanker and two large fires. The strike hit around 11:30 local time (5:30 AM ET Monday), about 10 km from Abyei town.
- The Sudan War Observatory says Sunday's strikes in West Kordofan killed 150, including 145 on a truck carrying mourners into Al-Dabab, and that the drones likely flew from army-held Kadugli. That's the strike PM Oct. 19 #16 spelled "Al-Dibab."
- UN spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric said Monday: "We are alarmed by the continued deadly drone strikes across the country that are killing civilians, including children." South Sudan has summoned Sudan's ambassador. Updates AM #3.
Sources: BBC News · UN News (Oct. 19)3. Daytime Russian drone strikes hit a Kyiv hospital's operating room and injure 12 across the city; power is out in parts of 12 regions
The Kyiv Independent ("Russian drones strike Kyiv hospital, injure 12 across the city," 10:23 AM ET, updated 3:03 PM ET) reports that drones repeatedly hit Kyiv on Oct. 20. They damaged a hospital in Solomianskyi District and a medical facility in Holosiivskyi District.
- The strike hit the operating room of the Strazheska Institute and injured one patient. "This is the second time. Last year, the attack hit the fourth floor of the institute, and now it is on the sixth floor," said Serhii Koretskyi, whom the Kyiv Independent identifies as prime minister.
- National Police put the city's injured at 12, citing the State Emergency Service. Fires broke out near the Northern Bridge (city officials say the bridge wasn't hit) and at a garage cooperative. Mayor Klitschko said a later afternoon attack hit an energy facility in Shevchenkivskyi District.
- Ukrenergo reported new outages in 12 oblasts Tuesday morning. First Deputy Energy Minister Artem Nekrasov said Russia continues to "systematically and purposefully attack" the energy sector, hitting facilities in seven oblasts, including Lviv and Odesa, overnight and in the morning.
- Earlier Tuesday, at least three people were killed when a drone hit morning commuter traffic near the Kyiv–Odesa highway. Updates AM #1 (the 165-drone overnight wave).
4. Poland's Tusk will ask Ukraine to explain the drone that exploded in Lithuania after allegedly crossing Polish territory
At a government meeting, Prime Minister Donald Tusk said (via RMF24 and the Kyiv Independent, 11:00 AM ET): "We will investigate all circumstances. I count on the full cooperation of the Ukrainian side so that we can precisely explain what happened... Without emotion, without ill intentions."
- "Poland does not allow operations to be conducted on or over our territory without the explicit consent of the Polish state. That will not change, no matter who might be conducting those operations."
- Polish authorities haven't confirmed that the drone entered Poland's airspace. It exploded in Lithuania on Oct. 18 and damaged a moving car. No one was hurt.
- Ukraine apologized and said Russian jamming may have diverted one of its drones. Vilnius says it was probably part of a Ukrainian attack on St. Petersburg. Tusk is hosting Lithuanian President Nausėda in Warsaw.
- Updates AM #4 (Lithuania's push for radar-only shootdowns).
Sources: Kyiv Independent5. Rubio says interceptor delays to Ukraine aren't "some deliberate political directive," and Sikorski says Poland has no Patriots left to give
Speaking to reporters in India, Rubio acknowledged that a batch of interceptors may have been held up: "Every country in the world would like interceptors... It's probably the most in-demand product right now in the defense field" (Kyiv Independent, 11:53 AM ET).
- "So when a country doesn't get interceptors from the United States, it's not because we're denying. We have our own needs, too." He added that "there has not been some deliberate political directive to go out and harm Ukraine."
- He said he had a 45-minute call with Zelensky earlier Tuesday (AM #2). On Oct. 19 a Ukrainian official told the Kyiv Independent that Hegseth "has the contracts for Patriot missiles on his desk. He is not signing off on them."
- In an interview with PAP published Oct. 19, Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski said Poland can't supply Patriots and that the interceptor shortage worsened after the attacks on Iran: "This is a genuine problem." Zelensky has said the U.S. now supplies 12 Patriot interceptors a month.
- Updates AM #2.
6. The Saudi-led coalition shoots down a Houthi ballistic missile and then a drone near Riyadh, after the kingdom postponed its flagship investment conference
Anadolu ("Saudi-led coalition intercepts drone in Riyadh region in 2nd Tuesday attack") reports that the coalition said on X it intercepted and destroyed a drone in the Riyadh region. Earlier Tuesday it intercepted a ballistic missile fired toward the capital, after a security warning and explosions in the city.
- The coalition gave no further details.
- Xinhua reports Saudi Arabia on Monday pushed the 10th Future Investment Initiative, set for Oct. 26–29 in Riyadh, to 2027.
- Houthi spokesman Yahya Sarea claimed six attacks over 48 hours on Aramco facilities in Yanbu, the Shaybah field, King Khalid International Airport and other sites (PM Oct. 19 #17). That's a warring-party claim, and per Xinhua there was no immediate Saudi comment.
- Egypt's parliament postponed until Oct. 26 a vote on authorizing military support for Saudi Arabia.
7. Australia reveals Ghost Shark can lay 12 sea mines and launch Altius drones, and TWZ gets the first look inside its payload bay
At Anduril Australia's Sydney facility, Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy said: "The Ghost Shark now has teeth and will have the ability to inflict damage on any potential adversary." The government release is "Australia advances undersea warfare capabilities" (Oct. 19).
- The three previously secret payloads are sea mines (12 per mission), seabed supply caches being developed by Australia's Defence Science and Technology Group, and Anduril's Altius drones for reconnaissance or strike. Conroy said Bluebottle drone boats will also get a thin-line towed array sonar to hunt submarines.
- Some of the payloads will be used in the ongoing Maritime Big Play Pacific in San Diego, an AUKUS Pillar II exercise. RAN chief Vice Adm. Matt Buckley: uncrewed systems add "numbers to our fleets." Australia plans to spend up to A$5.8 billion over the decade on uncrewed undersea capabilities, including A$1.7 billion for Ghost Shark.
- TWZ (12:53 PM ET) says the bay on display held what look like plywood spacers, so it may be ballast or a mockup. The Rheinmetall Asteria mine displayed beside it wasn't installed, and the compatible Altius variants haven't been disclosed.
- First covered PM Oct. 19 #4 (the AUKUS demo). Breaking Defense reported the payloads at 10:01 AM ET.
8. Hegseth on his Arsenal of Freedom tour: he wants to "kick the door WIDE OPEN for commercial disruptors, nontraditional vendors, and venture-backed builders"
Speaking at Riverside Machine in Eau Claire, Wis., Hegseth said, per @DOWResponse (3:17 PM ET): "My job at the Department of War is to kick the door WIDE OPEN for commercial disruptors, nontraditional vendors, and venture-backed builders... Modern deterrence relies on true commercial speed."
- At Sierra Nevada Corp.'s Aviation Innovation and Technology Center near Dayton (war.gov, "Hegseth Praises Ohio Aerospace Workers During Arsenal of Freedom Tour"): "I don't care what name is on the side of the plane, or on the side of the missile. I want the very best. I want innovators."
- He said SNC is working with the Air Force "to quickly turn existing transport planes into flying communication platforms that can transmit secure data over any available signal, even when the enemy is jamming their communications" (@DOWResponse, 12:04 PM ET).
- War.gov says he argued that predictable demand signals let industry "hyperscale" production. We found no drone announcement at either stop.
- @DeptofWar livestreamed both stops (11:16 AM and 2:43 PM ET).
9. The DoW CIO backs new NIST–NSA–CISA practices for "super intelligence control incidents," when AI agents take actions no one told them to
@DoW_CIO (10:13 AM ET) "commends the collaborative effort of @NSACyber, @NIST, and @CISAgov in delivering practical guidance for managing the risks associated with super intelligence control incidents." The document is "Key Practices for Incident Readiness and Response in Super Intelligence Training and Evaluation" (Oct. 16).
- The focus is incidents in which one or more SI agents "take significant uninstructed actions that compromise explicit or implicit policies, controls, or security measures imposed by the operator to define the intended task scope or to ensure human oversight" (NIST).
- The ten voluntary practices span five stages: preparation, detection, response, recovery and reporting. The authors are NIST's Center for Advancing Innovation and Standards for Super Intelligence (CAISSI), NSA's Super Intelligence Security Center and CISA.
- "SI" replaces "AI" under President Trump's Sept. 29 executive order. Defense One (1:42 PM ET) reports a State Department cable dated Monday that tells staff to use "Super Intelligence" and rename AI programs. The order defines SI as the same technologies the existing statutory definition of AI covers.
- It's written for the frontier SI industry's training and evaluation work, not for weapons. Defense One says the cable also renames the American AI Exports Program the American SI Exports Program.
10. Epirus's Leonidas high-power microwave weapon is now on JIATF 401's Counter-UAS Marketplace
Defence Blog ("Microwave drone killer now on Pentagon's online store," Dylan Malyasov, 7:59 AM ET) reports Epirus said Leonidas met the criteria to join the marketplace run by Joint Interagency Task Force 401. That gives U.S. military units and federal agencies a faster way to order it.
- Defence Blog says the marketplace lists only systems that pass the task force's testing and validation. It opened in February, and its first four purchases ($13 million combined) were announced in April.
- Epirus didn't say which customers are interested, and a listing doesn't mean anyone has bought the system.
- Epirus says Leonidas works against radio-controlled, fiber-optic and autonomous drones; that's a company claim. On Oct. 5 the department chose Leonidas as the only microwave system among the four in JIATF 401's homeland directed-energy pilot. JIATF 401 director Brig. Gen. Matt Ross said then: "There is no silver bullet, or one size fits all solution to countering the threat of drones."
11. A Pentagon official on rebuilding Middle East bases: "nothing's a sanctuary anymore," and with drones around, "I can't pour four [feet] of concrete over everything"
Breaking Defense ("Pentagon weighs force posture, costs of rebuilding Middle East bases," Ashley Roque, 2:06 PM ET) quotes a senior defense official at a Defense Writers Group breakfast: "We're meeting with CENTCOM and doing the assessments right now from an installation perspective."
- "The installation is the weapon system, and I have to have a mindset that I treat it like it's a weapon system, not just a piece of real estate."
- Because drones and cruise missiles keep spreading, the department is working on "a different strategy" for making bases resilient and defensible. That includes working with the Golden Dome team on which sites to protect first. The official had no cost estimate.
- The story also notes Acting Navy Secretary Hung Cao told The Epoch Times "they blew the hell out of Bahrain," and that strikes reportedly knocked out the air operations center at Al Udeid.
- It's labeled Premium/Press because the official spoke on background.
Sources: Breaking Defense12. The Navy quadruples Gecko Robotics' contract ceiling to $300 million for its wall-climbing robots, drones and AI ship inspections
DefenseScoop ("Navy expands contract ceiling for AI-enabled repair robots," Brandi Vincent, 7:33 AM ET) reports the original five-year agreement from March had a $71 million ceiling and covered 18 Pacific Fleet ships. The expansion will take the work to the Atlantic Surface Fleet.
- Defense News (11:15 AM ET) describes the original deal as a $54 million IDIQ, so the two outlets give different starting figures.
- Gecko says its technology can save the Navy "up to $8 million in repair costs per ship" and spot structural problems "up to 50 times faster." Those are company claims.
- Co-founder Troy Demmer said the Komodo robot uses electromagnetic acoustic transducers to measure the steel under a deck coating, so repairs can be scoped while the ship is still in the water. "Historically, the U.S. Navy is not necessarily known for moving quickly."
- The Navy is aiming for 80% fleet readiness by 2027 (Defense News).
Sources: DefenseScoop · Defense News13. A U.S. Navy P-8A circles off Bulgaria a week after drone attacks sank a cargo ship there
Defence Blog (8:39 AM ET) reports that flight-tracking data (Itamilradar, using Flightradar24) shows a P-8A Poseidon crossing Bulgaria, passing over the Varna area and circling low off Burgas.
- On Oct. 13, drones hit two cargo ships in Bulgaria's exclusive economic zone. One sank off Krapets with 11 crew missing. The crew of the other, the Chelsea 3, said three drones attacked it.
- Officials haven't established whether aerial drones or drone boats hit the ships, or where they came from. Bulgarian reports say aerial drones. Russian Telegram channels posted a hull mark they attributed to a drone boat.
- Bulgarian Prime Minister Rumen Radev said "logic indicates that the result is in favour of the Russian Federation." The Navy hasn't said why the plane flew there.
- Continues the Black Sea coverage in Oct. 17 AM #10 and Oct. 18 AM #6. Defence Blog itself frames the attacks as Russian.
Sources: Defence Blog · @Defence_blog post14. A strike destroys a telecom data center in occupied Donetsk as Kyiv and Moscow keep targeting each other's data centers
The Kyiv Independent (9:41 AM ET) cites Petro Andriushchenko, head of the Center for the Study of the Occupation. He says an overnight attack destroyed a data center at Postysheva St. 60 belonging to Ugletelecom and Elecom, the main telecom operator in occupied Donetsk.
- Alexey Kulemzin, head of Russia's proxy administration in Donetsk city, reported a Ukrainian attack and posted video of the same building. Ukrainian officials haven't confirmed it, and the story doesn't name the weapon.
- From Oct. 8 to 18, Ukrainian drones hit three Yandex data centers, a Sberbank facility under construction and a VK data center. Verstka reported that the Yandex strikes disrupted dozens of Russian court hearings.
- The Kyiv Independent says the strikes could set back Russia's AI development and affect its military technology.
Sources: Kyiv Independent · Kyiv Independent live (Yandex)15. Air & Space Forces Magazine: the Air Force has given airmen "more than 300 AI tools," and a former Air Force CIO says it's "completely out of control"
"AI Adoption: Are Air Force and Space Force Ready and Willing?" (Todd South, 1:57 PM ET) weighs leaders' push for AI against worries about governance.
- Retired Lt. Gen. William Bender, the former Air Force CIO, who now advises the AI governance firm Kosmoy: "Two things can be true at once: we're measuring it, we're watching it, and setting objectives and … it's completely out of control."
- The magazine reports that by mid-June the Army had used up its 100 million-token yearly allotment on the Sage AI platform.
- The Pentagon says more than half of the 3.3 million DoD personnel with access have used GenAI.mil. The Department of the Air Force tracks AI use cases in an inventory called CLARA.
- The story is mostly about back-office AI, not autonomous weapons.
Sources: Air & Space Forces Magazine16. A Ukrainian think tank tells Taiwan to stockpile 1,600 to 5,000 drone boats before a war, and to expect to lose half or more
National Defense ("JUST IN: Taiwan Can Learn from Ukraine's Maritime Drone Strategy, Report Finds," Tabitha Reeves) covers the Serpens Center's report "The Black Sea Blueprint for Taiwan," which was presented at an FDD event on Oct. 20.
- The report says: "USVs matter not because they are revolutionary technologies, but because they are scalable instruments of disruption."
- Lead author Catarina Buchatskiy said Taiwan should plan to lose at least 50 to 60% of the drones it deploys. The report treats 25% as the best case and 75% as pessimistic but possible.
- The report puts Taiwan's pre-war fleet at about 1,600 boats by around 2030 at the low end and about 5,000 at the high end. FDD's Mark Montgomery: "The U.S. is the worst at this. We go with exquisite, high-end stuff."
- @NationalDefense posted the story at 2:58 PM ET.
Sources: National Defense · @NationalDefense post17. Quantum Systems says its battery-powered Apex Recordhunter flew 777 km/h, faster than Russia's jet-powered attack drones
Defence Blog ("German electric drone hits 483 mph in record attempt," 7:56 AM ET) reports that Chief Revenue Officer Martin Karkour announced the run. It isn't an official record yet because the return leg still has to be flown.
- Karkour: "Push that hard and physics pushes back... everything we learned yesterday goes into the next flight."
- Co-CEO Sven Kruck tied the work to Russia's jet-powered Geran drones, which he said can reportedly fly 500–600 km/h: "Russia is accelerating the threat. We are engineering the response."
- The company says the record drone isn't a weapon and shares no hardware with combat systems. Quantum has an order for 15,000 WIY Strila interceptor drones for Ukraine's National Guard.
- These are company claims relayed by press. Defence Blog's post has ~6.6K views.
Sources: Defence Blog · @Defence_blog post18. Skyfly raises $10 million to turn its two-seat eVTOL into Longbow, a 400-mile hybrid cargo drone that can fly off ships
Defence Blog ("UK startup turns two-seat eVTOL into 400-mile cargo drone," 7:50 AM ET) reports that HICO Investment Group led the seed round, with Archangel, a defense-only venture fund, taking part.
- Longbow is designed to carry 200 kg more than 640 km and take off from ships, fields or forward bases. A turbine generator burning Jet A-1, JP-8 or diesel recharges its batteries in flight.
- Skyfly is enrolled in the UK Ministry of Defence's Uncrewed Air Systems Heavy Lift Capability framework.
- DroneLife (2:57 PM ET) notes that Longbow is still in development with no delivery schedule. The round also pays for FAA light-sport certification of the piloted Axe.
- These are company claims.
19. HAVELSAN shows a drone taking off on its own from a drone boat and dropping a 60 mm mortar round on a target
Naval News (2:40 PM ET) published a HAVELSAN press release; Turkish outlet ha-ber first reported the demo on Oct. 12. VN Maritime's USV-12 boat navigated autonomously, and ASİSGUARD's SAGAN drone took off from it on its own, dropped a 60 mm mortar round on a designated target and completed its mission.
- The company says the target was engaged "under operator control," using HAVELSAN's command-and-control and autonomy software.
- No date, location or test conditions were given. Army Recognition also wrote it up, but it rests on the company's account.
Sources: Naval News (HAVELSAN release)20. Cross Water's plug-in navy RIB, already in service with an unnamed NATO navy, is set to get remote operation in 2027
Defence Blog ("One boat, many missions: Cross Water's plug-in navy RIB," 7:42 AM ET) reports that in September the Swedish-Estonian builder's XW Modular 750 carried a Lobster Robotics seabed drone at REPMUS 2026, NATO's uncrewed maritime exercise in Portugal.
- CEO Jürgen Visnapuu: "Autonomy is an upgrade, not a new boat."
- The company plans remote operation in 2027, followed by autonomous, optionally crewed operation through its Vessel Manager software. A 60-knot, 10.5 m model is due in spring 2027.
- These are company claims, and the NATO customer isn't named.
Sources: Defence Blog · @Defence_blog post21. ISW: Russia's long-range strikes keep wearing down Ukraine's energy sector, and daytime strikes are causing significant civilian casualties
@TheStudyofWar posted (9:03 AM ET, ~23K views): "Russia's ongoing long-range strike campaign against Ukrainian energy infrastructure continues to degrade Ukraine's energy sector and disproportionately harms civilians. Daytime Russian strikes are also inflicting significant civilian casualties."
- The post quotes its Oct. 19 assessment post (AM #16).
- We read the post, not the full report.
Sources: @TheStudyofWar post22. arXiv: RuleGraph lets an LLM-driven robot refuse the harmful part of an instruction and still finish the rest
In "Refuse the Harm, Complete the Task via Graph-of-Rules Planning for LLM-Enabled Robots" (Taheri et al.), five cooperating agents turn general safety principles into rules for a specific setting, then check candidate plans against them.
- It cut the attack success rate to 0% on both benchmarks. Task success was 98.57% on the RoboGuard benchmark and 84.54% on the authors' long-horizon compound instructions.
- It's from the Oct. 20 cs.RO listing and wasn't used this morning. The next listing posts after 8 PM ET.
Sources: arXiv 2610.2460323. arXiv: a drone keeps tracking small ground robots through occlusions by fusing in their own position data
"A Heterogeneous UAV UGV Methodology for Aerial Tracking of Mini Autonomous Cars" (Fernandez et al.) combines a drone camera's YOLO detections with state data from the ground robots, so it can hold its estimate when it loses sight of them.
- Over 600 simulation runs, it cut localization error by 37.3% to 64.2% across four scenarios compared with vision-only tracking.
- It's simulation-only (ROS 2 and Gazebo), from the Oct. 20 listing.
Sources: arXiv 2610.2387824. @TimOnPoint on the Greywolf lessons: "This is why we must constantly practice against a competent opposition force"
@TimOnPoint (personal account, 2:23 PM ET, ~680 views) quoted Defence Blog's post on #1, including the authors' estimate that "roughly 60% of the counter-drone fight at brigade level is fieldcraft and drills."
- Earlier (10:28 AM ET, ~3.4K views), he quoted @WarMonitor3 on Ukraine's drone-ambush "waiters": "I think the Ukrainian Army has become too complex with this idea. There's a much easier/cheaper way to do this ambush effectively." He didn't say what that way is.
- Both are opinion posts.
25. @TimOnPoint on Abyei: "wait until the whole of Africa commits to drone warfare"
@TimOnPoint (9:46 AM ET, ~2.2K views) quoted @Reuters' post on the Abyei strike (#2): "If you think it's wild in Ukraine, wait until the whole of Africa commits to drone warfare."
- It's an opinion post.
Sources: @TimOnPoint post
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How AUTOWAR25 ranks
Every edition, we scan official channels, news, industry, research, and social posts for the 25 most important developments in autonomous warfare: drones, counter-drone systems, uncrewed vessels and vehicles, and military AI.
Stories rank by source first:
- Official means governments, militaries, and their leaders speaking on the record.
- Premium/Press means established news outlets.
- Industry/Research means companies, think tanks, and published research.
- Social means notable posts from analysts, reporters, and practitioners.
Within each group, newer stories rank higher and engagement breaks ties. A company press release stays out of the top 10 until someone else reports on it. Ongoing marks a developing story, and Carryover marks one from a previous edition that's still moving. Claims from warring parties are labeled as claims, and anything we couldn't independently confirm is marked unverified.
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